Wales v England

v

11am ET, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Wales and England. Two ancient neighbors squaring off in one of the grandest venues in the country. A match between two sides of such differing historical magnitude shouldn't really draw our interest. But there's real hate involved here. Phil Bennett, the Welsh rugby captain said the following before a 1977 match against the English:

"Look what these bastards have done to Wales. They've taken our coal, our water, our steel. They buy our homes and live in them for a fortnight every year. What have they given us? Absolutely nothing. We've been exploited, raped, controlled and punished by the English — and that's who you are playing this afternoon."

Oh. That's the goosebumpy stuff. That's what the Welsh side and their inattentive fans will need to get them going in advance of Saturday's brwydr (Welsh is a silly language - that word means 'battle.' When you press the 'listen' button on Google Translate, it sounds like a Nazi inquiring as to the location of your papers, only less angry and anti-semetic). If only there was an internationally-renowned superstar on the Welsh team of today to issue such a rallying cry. Something that'll take the nation's mind off the Rugby team's capitulation last week in Paris and focus it solely on something they can all get behind, beating the hell out of the English.

What's that?

Such a superstar exists?

Why yes, friends, one does exist! Gareth Bale, World's Fastest White Person (could be true, although Christopher Lemaitre* might disagree), was plopped in front of the media and uttered words of such emotion, the entire nation was brought to its feet and let forth a mighty bellow that was heard from the bottom of the deepest coal mine to the summit of Snowdon:

"We're quietly confident in the camp that we've got enough to pull off an upset."

Sadly, as much as we'd have liked to have heard a blood-and-thunder call to arms, that's probably all the man could've said without sounding delusional. This is not a Wales side in the midst of a great run of form. Since 2009, their only wins have come against Estonia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, and a 3-0 pasting of Scotland that finally put George Burley out of his misery. They haven't gotten a point from a respectable side in a competitive match since they drew 0-0 against Germany in November 2007. And against England, it's not a very successful all-time record. As little as 'All-time record' matters in a one game scenario, it's still a staggering number: only 14 wins out of 99 tries against England for the Welsh.

Apparently, it's the first sellout in Cardiff for the national team in six years. Soccer's always been, and likely always will be second fiddle to Rugby Union in these parts, but that doesn't mean that there can't be a place for football. It's looking increasingly likely that either Swansea or Cardiff (both?) will take part in the Premier League next year. That'll help things significantly in terms of hometown talent development. The Millenium Stadium is a big venue to fill, but if there's a competitive national team playing there that at least threatens to make major tournaments, it'll get filled, it'll get loud, and (apologies for the enormously annoying and overused cliche) it can become a fortress. "Delilah" is a hell of a song. Yeah, its about a guy killing his cheating ex, but if the soccer folks can sing it half as out of tune and passionately as the rugby patrons, Cardiff'll be a tough place to go and win.

For years, the Welsh team has been two or three world-class players, then a big pile of players who have no business in major international tournaments, and that's the case again this year. Bellamy, Bale, and Hennessey are fantastic players, and after that there's a rusty Aaron Ramsey, a suprising Joe Ledley and then, a bunch of players who wouldn't sniff the Scotland starting line-up, much less the English. Since Bale and Bellamy will not be appearing in this film, the task becomes even more difficult

So, can Wales win? Even with the hullabaloo around John Terry being re-named Captain, and Fabio Capello's increasingly hot seat, I don't see it. Neither does Ladbrokes who see the following: Home Win 7/1, Draw 7/2 Away Win 2/5. I'm tempted by the draw if you bet it alone, but there's not much value to be found in this match, unless you're boosting a parlay with the 2/5. I'd stay well away from this match with your hard-earned money. It can be exchanged for goods and services, after all!

*He was the first white guy to run the 100m under 10 seconds, 43 years after Jim Hines first did it. God, we suck.


UPDATE: Apparently, Bellamy WILL play against England...